If No Hillary, Who Wins Democratic Nomination
March 4, 2015 - While its to early to see what the recent revelations about the use of a private email account by Hillary Clinton during her time as Secretary of State will have on her expected presidential run , it does beg the question if not Hillary who will the Democrats put up in 2016 as their nominee.
Should Hillary Clinton not run the person must likely to benefit would be Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. Warren already has dedicated supporters who would rally around her would she run for president. Its possible that Warren's ardent supporters could propel her to victory in the Iowa caucuses should she run. With a win in Iowa , Warren could effectively lock up the nomination with a victory in New Hampshire. Being right next to her home state of Massachusetts , Warren is already known in New Hampshire which gives her a leg up on winning the first in the nation primary. After Hillary , Warren is the only candidate the Democrats have who voters in a general election would stand in long lines to vote for as they did twice for Obama. The prospect of making history by electing the first woman president, would give Warren a good chance of winning the general election.
Next up on the list of contenders would be Vice President Joe Biden. Its kind of hard to imagine that there is a great deal of hard core Biden supporters in the Democratic Party. Prone to making verbal gaffes , its difficult to imagine Biden as the parties nominee. Its even harder to see him winning in the general election. While voters wanting to make history would stand in line for either Clinton or Warren , its hard to see anyone standing in line for Biden. The chances of Biden winning the 2016 general election seems remote.
Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York , twice elected by large margins seems a likely contender should Warren not run and Biden falter along the way. Possessing a famous last name within the Democratic Party, Cuomo is a good orator and well known in Democratic circles. The last time the voters elected a Governor of New York president was Franklin D Roosevelt in 1932. Should he get the nomination Cuomo would have a better 50/50 chance at winning the general election.
After Warren , Biden and Cuomo the Democrats prospects look pretty slim. Former Governor Martin O'Malley of Maryland has been been testing the waters about a possible presidential bid. O'Malley though is little known outside of Maryland and it hard right now to see how he would get the nomination or even win the general election.
The dream candidate for the Republicans is Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Elected as an Independent Sanders caucuses with the Democrats and has expressed an interest in running for the Democratic nomination. A long shot to win the nomination , seems hard to come up with a scenario where Sanders could prevail in a general election.